China’s economy is still growing, but the World Bank sees a slower 2026 ahead

China posted solid growth in early 2026, with GDP up 5.0 percent year on year in the first quarter as high-tech investment and exports offset weak consumption. Momentum then softened in the second quarter, and the World Bank now projects growth to ease to 4.4 percent in 2026 as domestic demand remains subdued, the property sector keeps adjusting, and export growth moderates. [1] Why it matters: China is still one of the key anchors of global demand, trade, and industrial supply chains, so a slower growth path can ripple into commodity markets, exporters, and regional activity. The report also signals that policy support is increasingly being used to cushion weakness rather than deliver a strong reacceleration, which matters for the durability of any rebound. [1] Key insights: High-tech investment and exports were the main supports to Q1 growth, while consumption stayed cautious and property weakness persisted. [1] | The World Bank says growth will likely slow because private investment is constrained by the property adjustment and low profitability in some sectors. [1] | Public infrastructure spending and continued strength in high-tech sectors are expected to offset some of the slowdown, but only partially. [1] | The report says rebalancing toward consumption is proceeding only gradually under current policy settings. [1]