How Eritrea's deployment could widen the Tigray conflict

Multiple sources told AFP that Eritrean troops had crossed into Tigray, taken positions around Adigrat and were pushing south. [13] Fighting between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian federal forces resumed on September 23, and the Ethiopian army entered Mekelle at the weekend after the rebels withdrew. [13] Why it matters: The reported intervention adds a neighboring state's forces to an internal conflict amid a breakdown in Ethiopia-Eritrea relations. Eritrea fears Ethiopia could seek Red Sea access by force, making border security and sea-access disputes part of the same crisis. [13] Key insights: Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 civil war, but relations subsequently deteriorated over Ethiopia's claims to sea access. [13] | ACLED assessed that Eritrean forces entered Tigray to prevent Ethiopian government and allied forces from reaching the border and potentially fighting inside Eritrea. [13] | Diplomatic channels have also narrowed: Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and closed its embassy in Asmara, while Eritrea said it would sever all diplomatic ties. [13] Cheatsheet facts: What changed: Eritrean troops reportedly crossed into Tigray and deployed near Adigrat, about 115 kilometres north of Mekelle. [13] | Why now: Ethiopian forces advanced after fighting resumed on September 23; Eritrea fears the conflict could reach its territory. [13] | Watch next: Track verified troop positions around Adigrat and the border, alongside changes to diplomatic ties and travel warnings. [13]