How can warming ecosystems amplify the warming humans started?
A new study published on September 10 found that natural carbon feedbacks could add substantially to global warming this century.
Researchers estimate that emissions from warming ecosystems could amplify global heating by 20% to 30% this century, adding roughly 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2100.[5] The study examines feedbacks involving thawing permafrost, methane-emitting wetlands and lakes, and more frequent or intense wildfires, all…
Researchers estimate that emissions from warming ecosystems could amplify global heating by 20% to 30% this century, adding roughly 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2100.[5] The study examines feedbacks involving thawing permafrost, methane-emitting wetlands and lakes, and more frequent or intense wildfires, all of which can release additional carbon dioxide or methane as temperatures rise.[3][5]
Why it matters: No single climate model currently includes all the ecosystem feedbacks assessed by the researchers, so their combined effect could make future warming more severe than some projections indicate.[5] The findings also strengthen the case for adaptation measures such as flood barriers, drought-resistant crops and early-warning systems for climate tipping points.[5]
Key insights: Thawing permafrost allows microbes to decompose long-frozen organic matter, releasing carbon dioxide and methane.[5] | Warmer wetlands, ponds and lakes can emit more methane because microbial decomposition accelerates and warmer water retains less gas.[5] | Hotter air, shorter winters and drier soils can intensify wildfires, producing further carbon dioxide and methane emissions.[5] | Even a scenario in which human emissions decline after 2050 could see natural feedbacks add an average of 0.4°C by 2100.[5]
Cheatsheet facts: What changed: A combined assessment put the additional warming from four ecosystem feedbacks at 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2100.[5] | Why now: Fossil-fuel-driven warming is thawing permafrost, heating wetlands and lakes, drying soils and worsening fires that release more greenhouse gases.[3][5] | Watch next: Watch whether climate models and government adaptation plans begin incorporating all four feedback categories together.[5]
Researchers estimate that emissions from warming ecosystems could amplify global heating by 20% to 30% this century, adding roughly 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2100.[5] The study examines feedbacks involving thawing permafrost, methane-emitting wetlands and lakes, and more frequent or intense wildfires, all of which can release additional carbon dioxide or methane as temperatures rise.[3][5]
Why it matters: No single climate model currently includes all the ecosystem feedbacks assessed by the researchers, so their combined effect could make future warming more severe than some projections indicate.[5] The findings also strengthen the case for adaptation measures such as flood barriers, drought-resistant crops and early-warning systems for climate tipping points.[5]
Key insights: Thawing permafrost allows microbes to decompose long-frozen organic matter, releasing carbon dioxide and methane.[5] | Warmer wetlands, ponds and lakes can emit more methane because microbial decomposition accelerates and warmer water retains less gas.[5] | Hotter air, shorter winters and drier soils can intensify wildfires, producing further carbon dioxide and methane emissions.[5] | Even a scenario in which human emissions decline after 2050 could see natural feedbacks add an average of 0.4°C by 2100.[5]
Cheatsheet facts: What changed: A combined assessment put the additional warming from four ecosystem feedbacks at 0.2°C to 0.4°C by 2100.[5] | Why now: Fossil-fuel-driven warming is thawing permafrost, heating wetlands and lakes, drying soils and worsening fires that release more greenhouse gases.[3][5] | Watch next: Watch whether climate models and government adaptation plans begin incorporating all four feedback categories together.[5]