China’s growth is holding up, but rebalancing pressure is rising
The World Bank’s July 2026 China Economic Update says China maintained solid growth early in the year, with high-tech investment and exports offsetting subdued consumption [1]. Momentum then softened in the second quarter after the global energy supply shock, though the report says the impact was cushioned by large oil reserves, diversified fuel imports, a high share of renewables, and policy measures [1].
The report points to a Chinese economy that is still growing, but increasingly constrained by weak domestic demand, which makes the outlook for global trade, commodities, and emerging-market supply chains more uncertain [1]. It also signals that near-term policy support and longer-term structural reform will both be needed if China is to sustain growth while rebalancing its economy [1].
Key insights
- Growth is projected to moderate to 4.4 percent in 2026 amid persistent domestic demand headwinds [1].
- The low-carbon transition is changing labor demand, with green technical skills and transferable competencies gaining importance beyond low-carbon sectors [1].
- Those skills carry wage premiums of around 22 to 25 percent, but skill mismatches are limiting inclusive employment gains [1].
- The report argues for short-term reskilling and labor-mobility support, plus longer-term education and labor-market reforms [1].