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Geopolitics and Global Security: War, trade routes, and security spillovers

The strongest developments are in the Iran-US conflict, where renewed strikes, casualties, and threats to shipping are escalating risks across the Middle East [2][5]. There are also clear second-order security effects: Russia’s war economy is being distorted by drone-driven internet shutdowns and cash hoarding [6], while major public events like the World Cup final and Farnborough Airshow are being reshaped by security and political signaling [3][7].

The field note

1 source · 3 items
  1. The US death toll in the conflict rose after the Jordan attack, and Centcom said more strikes were intended to…
  2. Both sides are now using infrastructure as part of the conflict narrative, with allegations involving bridges,…
  3. The Strait of Hormuz has become a central lever in the confrontation, with the US saying it is targeting Iran’s…
Story 012 sources

Iran-US escalation deepens after troop deaths, strikes, and shipping threats

Two US service members were killed and one remains missing after Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks in Jordan, and the US responded with another round of air strikes against Iran for a seventh and then eighth consecutive night [5][2]. The conflict is now tied directly to commercial shipping and regional infrastructure, with Washington saying its strikes aim to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has declared the strait closed and accused the US of hitting civilian infrastructure [5][2].

Why it matters

This is no longer just a battlefield exchange; it is becoming a regional security crisis with implications for energy flows, allied territory, and maritime commerce [2][5]. The repeated casualties and infrastructure accusations raise the risk of wider escalation and make the security of the Strait of Hormuz a live geopolitical pressure point [2][5].

Key insights

  • The US death toll in the conflict rose after the Jordan attack, and Centcom said more strikes were intended to punish IRGC forces it blamed for the attack [5][2].
  • Both sides are now using infrastructure as part of the conflict narrative, with allegations involving bridges, airports, train stations, power plants, and an under-construction nuclear power plant [2][5].
  • The Strait of Hormuz has become a central lever in the confrontation, with the US saying it is targeting Iran’s ability to threaten shipping and Iran warning vessels that ignore its cautions may face “accidents” [2][5].
  • Regional governments are being pulled in: Jordan summoned Iran’s charges daffaires, and the Gulf Cooperation Council accused Tehran of targeting civilian infrastructure [2][5].
Story 021 source

Russia’s wartime economy is being squeezed by cash use and internet shutdowns

Russians are increasingly turning to cash as mobile internet shutdowns disrupt card payments and more businesses try to hide income under financial strain more than four years into the war with Ukraine [6]. The BBC reports a 1.56tn rouble rise in cash in circulation since the start of the year, alongside tax pressure, a widening budget deficit, and a downgraded 2026 growth forecast [6].

Why it matters

This shows how the war is feeding back into Russia’s domestic economy: security measures meant to counter drones are also making tax collection harder and pushing more activity into the shadow economy [6]. That weakens the state’s fiscal capacity at the same time it needs revenue to sustain the war effort [6].

Key insights

  • The biggest immediate driver of cash demand is repeated Ukrainian drone activity followed by Kremlin-ordered mobile internet shutdowns [6].
  • The government says the shutdowns are meant to counter drone strikes, but the BBC says they are also undermining tax collection [6].
  • Higher VAT and a lower VAT threshold are pushing small firms toward “grey schemes,” including avoiding receipts and paying cash wages [6].
  • The shift to cash has been reinforced by earlier wartime shocks, including partial mobilization in 2022 and the Wagner mutiny in 2023 [6].

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