How conflict is squeezing both of Saudi Arabia’s oil-export routes

Saudi Arabia closed the 1,200km East-West pipeline, which allows its crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, after drones launched from Iraq struck the route and caused injuries and damage [1][3]. At the same time, Houthi forces seized much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and strategic islands around Bab al-Mandab, displacing nearly 50,000 civilians and increasing their leverage over the southern gateway to the Suez Canal [4][5]. Why it matters: The two developments threaten Saudi export routes on opposite sides of the Arabian Peninsula: the pipeline was carrying an estimated 4% to 5% of global oil supply, while Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea and Suez Canal to Asian trade routes [3][5]. Crude prices have consequently risen above $100 a barrel, and renewed Saudi-Houthi exchanges risk reviving Yemen’s devastating war [3][5]. Key insights: The East-West pipeline is a strategic workaround: it carries Saudi crude to the Red Sea without using the Strait of Hormuz [1][3]. | Iraq removed the operations commander in Maysan governorate and opened an investigation after confirming that the drones originated from the province bordering Iran [1][3]. | Riyadh has declined immediate retaliation following contact with Iraq’s prime minister, while reserving the right to take measures to protect Saudi territory and infrastructure [3]. | Control of Mayyun and other islands in Bab al-Mandab increases the Houthis’ ability to target vessels in the narrow waterway, particularly Saudi tankers [5]. Cheatsheet facts: What changed: A drone attack closed Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline while Houthi forces captured Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and strategic islands around Bab al-Mandab [3][5]. | Why now: The pipeline had become more important as a way around the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis completed a rapid coastal offensive amid the wider US-Iran war [1][5]. | Watch next: Watch for the pipeline’s reopening, Saudi decisions on retaliation, Iraq’s investigation, and verified changes to commercial navigation through Bab al-Mandab [1][3][5].