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Climate & Environment: Extreme heat, El Niño and water resilience

A potentially historic El Niño is intensifying weather risks worldwide as governments strengthen preparedness measures.[2][3][4] Separately, researchers have modelled stratospheric aerosol injection as a way to reduce marine heatwaves, while the IPCC and IWMI are convening experts to address water-related climate risks.[1][5]

The field note

5 sources · 5 items
  1. WIRED describes the WMO outlook as the most certain forecast in the organization's history.[3]
  2. Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across much of South East Asia, Central America and northern South Ame…
  3. Wetter conditions are expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern US, raising flood r…
Story 013 sources

WMO warns of a potentially historic El Niño [2][3][4]

The World Meteorological Organization says the strengthening El Niño could be the strongest in more than 70 years and persist until at least February 2027.[2][4] Forecasts indicate that monthly sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could approach 4C above average, while the event amplifies heat, drought, wildfire, typhoon and flood risks across different regions.[2][4]

Why it matters

El Niño is developing on top of long-term human-caused warming, potentially intensifying disruption to communities, economies and ecosystems; vulnerable regions already face wildfires, deadly typhoons, evacuations and heightened flood risks.[2][4]

Key insights

  • WIRED describes the WMO outlook as the most certain forecast in the organization's history.[3]
  • Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across much of South East Asia, Central America and northern South America, increasing drought and wildfire risks.[2][4]
  • Wetter conditions are expected in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern US, raising flood risks.[2][4]
  • Governments and aid groups are expanding early-warning systems and pre-emptive assistance, including a US medical-support deployment to Peru.[2][4]
Story 021 source

Scientists model aerosol cooling for marine heatwaves [1]

Researchers led by Dr Lala Kounta used the ARISE-SAI simulator to test whether releasing reflective sulfur dioxide aerosols into the stratosphere could limit ocean heatwaves.[1] Their modelling found that annual injections of up to 11 million tons could reduce heatwave intensity by 25% and duration by 21%, while up to 22 million tons produced larger modelled reductions of 75% and 80%, respectively.[1]

Why it matters

Marine heatwaves are associated with coral bleaching, declining marine species and toxic algal blooms, but aerosol cooling would not prevent oceans from absorbing carbon dioxide or stop acidification, leaving emissions cuts and carbon removal necessary.[1]

Key insights

  • Stratospheric aerosol injection seeks to reflect sunlight using chemistry resembling the cooling effect observed after major volcanic eruptions.[1]
  • The 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption released an estimated 22 million tons of sulfur dioxide and was followed by a global temperature decline of more than 1 degree Fahrenheit for nearly two years.[1]
  • The largest modelled benefits appeared in the tropical Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Arctic Ocean and South Atlantic.[1]
  • Most simulated aerosol deposition occurred in the Southern Hemisphere, where the broader atmospheric effects remain unclear.[1]
Story 031 source

IPCC and IWMI put water risks into the AR7 spotlight [5]

The International Water Management Institute and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will bring about 60 experts together in Colombo, Sri Lanka, from September 8–10, 2026.[5] The meeting will assess climate-related water knowledge, identify research gaps and develop evidence intended to inform policy and practice.[5]

Why it matters

The meeting comes while authors are developing contributions to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report, whose Working Group II assessment will include a dedicated chapter on water.[5]

Key insights

  • The agenda covers water risks, climate resilience, evidence gaps and policy pathways.[5]
  • Participants will include experts involved in IPCC assessments and IWMI water research.[5]
  • The organizers describe water as central to understanding climate risks and designing effective responses.[5]

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